TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs. open), while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance DOGE/USDT candle vs. CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index) and different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), creating potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Monitor both Binance DOGE/USDT and CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI independently. A move up on one exchange may not align with the aggregated index. Kalshi's 37 identical Yes-resolution conditions warrant verification before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary up/down resolution based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single source of truth: Binance exchange data for the specific 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 14.Kalshi:
Multi-threshold Yes resolution based on CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI). All 37 conditions resolve to Yes if the 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds thresholds ranging from 0.005 to 0.185. No explicit No condition provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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