TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$2,934
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index with multiple price thresholds. The core question is identical across platforms, but the measurement methodologies and data sources differ significantly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct data sources and measurement methodologies are used to resolve the same directional event. Polymarket uses Binance spot exchange candle data, while Kalshi uses a third-party real-time index. Price divergence between these sources at the resolution timestamp could produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Traders should monitor both Binance DOGE/USDT and CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on March 13, 2026. If the two sources show materially different prices or directions, expect potential disputes or platform-specific resolutions. Kalshi's 42 conditions need clarification—confirm whether only one threshold applies or if the market structure is malformed.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional comparison using Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 13. Single, unambiguous resolution path. Source: Binance official DOGE/USDT pair.
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with 42 separate price threshold conditions. All conditions resolve to Yes if the 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds the stated threshold. No explicit DOWN outcome defined. Thresholds range from 0.0049999 to 0.2099999. Source: CF Benchmarks real-time index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.