TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up on June 30, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$924

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$474
N/A
N/A
$474
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on June 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome but use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create settlement risk. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index with 33 redundant price thresholds that effectively collapse into a single condition (DOGE > 0.005), while Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle comparison (close >= open). Index prices and exchange candles can diverge.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's market is essentially a binary bet on whether Dogecoin trades above 0.005 USD according to CF Benchmarks. Polymarket's market is a directional bet on Binance's 1H candle. If Binance's candle is flat or down while the index is up, or vice versa, the two platforms will diverge. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging may be necessary.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with 60-second average measurement. Contains 33 conditions, all checking if the index exceeds various thresholds from 0.0099999 to 0.1649999 USD. All 33 conditions resolve to YES, making the logic tautological—any price above 0.005 triggers YES. Source: CF Benchmarks proprietary index.
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle data. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Source: Binance exchange DOGE/USDT pair only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than individual exchange prices.

Frequently asked questions

The Dogecoin price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether DOGE will trade higher or lower by the settlement date. This dashboard displays the current odds for each outcome, historical price action, and cumulative trading volume across both venues. By tracking the same event on multiple platforms, you gain insight into how different market microstructures and trader bases value the same directional bet. The cross-platform view reveals whether consensus is building or diverging, helping traders identify arbitrage opportunities and gauge conviction levels.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket typically attracts global retail traders and operates with lower barriers to entry, while Kalshi serves a more regulated, US-focused audience. Differences in order-book depth, market-maker participation, and settlement rule clarity can cause one platform to price the outcome higher or lower than the other. These spreads create arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated traders willing to hedge across venues. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify which pricing is more reliable based on volume and historical accuracy.

Major catalysts include Bitcoin price action, since DOGE often moves in correlation with BTC; regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly; social media sentiment spikes; and macroeconomic data affecting risk appetite. Exchange listings, wallet activity surges, or celebrity endorsements can trigger sharp moves. Technical levels and support-resistance zones matter—a break above or below key price points often accelerates momentum in either direction. Funding rate changes and liquidation cascades on leveraged exchanges can amplify intraday swings. Tracking on-chain metrics, futures open interest, and cross-platform odds divergence helps you anticipate shifts before they fully price in.