TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up at June 29, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$644

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on June 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources and resolution methodologies. Polymarket measures directional price movement (close vs. open) on Binance DOGE/USDT, while Kalshi measures whether a CF Benchmarks index average exceeds specific price thresholds. The two approaches can produce different outcomes for the same underlying asset at the same time.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary up/down logic depends on Binance candle data, while Kalshi's logic depends on CF Benchmarks index data. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging may be necessary. Confirm which data source your counterparty is using before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional price movement test using Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 29, 2026. Source: Binance DOGE/USDT pair only.
  • Kalshi: Index-based threshold test using CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI). Contains 33 redundant conditions, all stating: if 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price level (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1649999), market resolves Yes. No explicit No condition provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0049999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0099999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0149999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0199999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0249999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0299999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0349999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0399999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0449999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0499999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0549999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0599999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0649999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0699999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0749999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0799999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0849999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0899999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0949999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0999999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1049999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1099999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1149999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1199999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1249999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1299999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1349999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1399999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1449999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1499999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1549999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1599999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1649999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds function as a probabilistic forecast of where traders expect DOGE to trade at resolution. Unlike spot prices, which reflect current supply and demand, these odds embed forward-looking sentiment about price direction over a specific timeframe. When odds heavily favor one outcome, it signals strong trader conviction about momentum or support levels. Comparing this market's odds to recent volatility and on-chain activity can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in known catalysts or overlooking emerging signals.

Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which naturally creates pricing divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, user interface, and settlement rules also influence how traders value the same outcome. Lower liquidity on one venue can amplify price swings, while arbitrage opportunities between platforms may persist if transaction costs exceed the spread. Monitoring both prices helps identify which platform's odds better reflect true market consensus.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency trading, shifts in Bitcoin or broader crypto sentiment, and Dogecoin-specific developments such as exchange listings or protocol updates. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, interest rate decisions, or risk-on/risk-off market rotations—can trigger rapid repricing. Social media momentum and whale wallet activity also influence short-term volatility. Traders monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates, and technical support levels often adjust positions ahead of these events, causing odds to shift materially before resolution.