TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Dogecoin be up on June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET?

Volume:
$4,969

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,041
N/A
N/A
$525
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 26, 2026 (8:00 AM–12:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts, each tied to whether the DOGEUSD_RTI index exceeds a specific price threshold at 5 PM EDT. Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing the Chainlink DOGE/USD price at the end of the window versus the beginning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different time windows, use different data sources (CF Benchmarks RTI vs. Chainlink), and employ different resolution logic (absolute threshold vs. relative price comparison). This creates potential for non-aligned outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with independent resolution paths. Kalshi resolves based on price levels at 5 PM EDT; Polymarket resolves based on intraday movement from 8 AM to 12 PM ET. Monitor both data sources independently and do not cross-hedge assuming identical outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' DOGEUSD_RTI exceeds a specific threshold (0.0049999 to 0.1949999) at 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract resolving to Up if Chainlink DOGE/USD price at 12:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 8:00 AM ET on June 26, 2026; otherwise Down. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) calculated immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price threshold, ranging from $0.005 to $0.20. A market resolves to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that market (e.g., a market for "$0.01 or above" resolves Yes if the average is above $0.0099999). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At the resolution time, 60 individual RTI price points are collected over one minute, and their simple average determines the final outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The Dogecoin price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, offering a unified view of how the crypto community expects DOGE to move during a specific four-hour window. This market captures real-time consensus by combining liquidity and odds from both platforms, letting you see whether traders collectively anticipate an upward or downward shift. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities and trading volume across venues, helping you gauge conviction levels and spot divergences between platforms at a glance.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on directional movement, which often diverges from simple technical analysis or spot price momentum. These odds incorporate forward-looking sentiment, upcoming catalysts, and tail-risk hedging that spot prices alone may not capture. A high probability for "up" doesn't mean the spot price will rise; it means traders collectively believe it's more likely than not. Comparing this market's implied odds to your own price forecast helps identify mispriced opportunities and consensus blind spots.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's order-book model and Polymarket's AMM-style mechanism can produce different equilibrium prices for the same outcome, especially when one platform has deeper liquidity or attracts traders with different risk appetites. Arbitrage opportunities may persist if transaction costs or withdrawal delays prevent traders from instantly equalizing prices across venues. Monitoring both platforms reveals which community—or mechanism—is pricing the event more conservatively.