TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET

Volume:
$6,203

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,539
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.165 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$570
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.175 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$570
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.145 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.15 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.155 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.16 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.17 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on June 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) as its settlement source, while Polymarket uses Binance's DOGE/USDT pair. Both markets resolve based on price comparison logic, but they reference fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible price sources (CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index vs. Binance DOGE/USDT spot price) and different measurement methodologies (threshold-based YES conditions vs. binary close >= open comparison). This creates potential for conflicting resolutions.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure is problematic: 35 conditions all resolve to YES with no explicit NO path defined. Polymarket's logic is binary and clear. If trading both, understand that CF Benchmarks RTI and Binance spot price can diverge. Kalshi's lack of a defined NO condition may result in cancellation or ambiguous settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with 35 threshold-based YES conditions ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1749999. All conditions resolve to YES if met; no explicit NO resolution criteria provided. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves UP if close >= open; resolves DOWN otherwise. Binary logic with clear resolution path. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on June 13, 2026. The official price is calculated by taking the average of all 60 RTI prices captured in the final minute before expiration. Each outcome threshold is evaluated independently against this averaged price, with outcomes resolving Yes if the average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., above $0.0049999 for the $0.005 outcome, above $0.0099999 for the $0.01 outcome, etc.). CF Benchmarks' RTI is used rather than other price sources to ensure consistency and accuracy in price determination.

Frequently asked questions

The Dogecoin price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether DOGE will close higher or lower by the resolution deadline. This dashboard displays the collective odds from both platforms, showing how prediction market participants are pricing the directional move. By tracking the same event across multiple venues, you gain insight into whether consensus is building around an up or down outcome, and whether any divergence between platforms signals arbitrage opportunities or differing risk assessments.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to risk on a specific outcome, whereas spot price expectations depend on technical analysis, sentiment, and on-chain metrics. This market's odds represent aggregate belief about DOGE's direction, but they may lag or lead spot price moves depending on information flow and trader positioning. When odds shift sharply, it often signals new information entering the market before traditional price discovery catches up. Comparing the two helps identify whether the market is pricing in catalysts that haven't yet moved the underlying asset.

Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and regulatory frameworks, which can create temporary price gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in fee structures, user interface, and market-making incentives also influence how quickly each platform reflects new information. Traders monitoring both venues may spot arbitrage opportunities when one platform prices the outcome significantly higher or lower than the other, though spreads typically narrow as sophisticated participants exploit them.

Macroeconomic announcements, Bitcoin volatility, regulatory news, and social media sentiment can all shift DOGE odds rapidly. Major exchange listings, developer updates, or shifts in retail trading interest often trigger sharp repricing. Broader crypto market rallies or selloffs tend to drag Dogecoin along, while idiosyncratic events—such as celebrity endorsements or meme-driven momentum—can create outsized moves. Monitoring on-chain activity, funding rates, and options positioning helps traders anticipate which catalysts might move this market before they're fully priced in.