TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 9, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up at July 9, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$2,971

$0.07 or above

 - Kalshi

$0.07 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,397
N/A
N/A
$1,366
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 9, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.145 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
$1,029
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$431
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on July 9, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs open), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' real-time index with multiple price-level thresholds, creating fundamentally different resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance candle vs CF Benchmarks RTI index), different resolution mechanics (binary directional vs multi-tier price levels), and different time-window definitions (1H candle vs 60-second average). These markets are structurally incompatible.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary up/down is independent of Kalshi's 31 price-level outcomes. If trading both, treat them as separate bets on different indices and methodologies. Monitor both data sources independently at settlement time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional resolution. Resolves Up if DOGE/USDT 1H candle close price >= open price; Down otherwise. Single outcome per market. Data source: Binance DOGE/USDT pair, specifically the 1H candle beginning at the specified time.
  • Kalshi: 31 independent price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold (ranging 0.005 to 0.165 USDT); No otherwise. Data source: CF Benchmarks real-time index, not Binance.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price is calculated as the average of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute before market expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill collective trader expectations into a single probability, distinct from spot price alone. While spot price reflects current supply and demand, this market isolates directional conviction over a specific timeframe. Traders incorporate technical analysis, on-chain metrics, macroeconomic catalysts, and sentiment when pricing outcomes. If odds diverge sharply from what spot-price momentum suggests, it may signal either mispricing or that traders are pricing in future events the current price hasn't yet reflected. Comparing odds to recent price action helps identify whether the market is pricing in mean reversion or continued momentum.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, all of which influence pricing. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts global traders with lower barriers to entry, while Kalshi operates under U.S. derivatives regulation and may draw institutional participants. Liquidity depth, order-book dynamics, and the timing of large trades can create temporary spreads. Additionally, each platform may have slightly different outcome definitions or resolution timelines, leading traders to price risk differently. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps identify where conviction is strongest.

Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve announcements, Bitcoin price swings, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—often drive Dogecoin volatility and reshape odds. Elon Musk statements or Tesla-related news historically move DOGE sharply. On-chain metrics like whale accumulation or exchange inflows can signal directional pressure. Regulatory developments affecting crypto broadly, or positive adoption announcements, may shift trader positioning. Technical levels and support/resistance zones also matter; a break above or below key price points can trigger cascading trades. Monitoring social sentiment, derivatives funding rates, and competing altcoin momentum helps anticipate moves before they're priced in.