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VS.

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Dogecoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up on July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$1,860

$0.07 or above

 - Kalshi

$0.07 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,327
N/A
N/A
$1,178
Settled
No
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$70
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
$0
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 8, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different data sources (CF Benchmarks RTI vs. Chainlink DOGE/USD), different measurement times (5 PM EDT snapshot vs. 4 PM–8 PM ET window), and different resolution logic (absolute price thresholds vs. directional comparison). The markets measure fundamentally different outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is a series of 33 binary price-level checks at a single moment (5 PM EDT); Polymarket's is a directional bet over a 4-hour range. They are not interchangeable. Confirm which data source and time window matches your intent before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Measures a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Offers 33 separate Yes/No outcomes, each resolving Yes if the index exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1649999). This is a price-level oracle check at a single point in time. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Compares Chainlink DOGE/USD price at the start of the window (4:00 PM ET) to the end (8:00 PM ET) on July 8, 2026. Resolves to Up if end price >= start price; Down otherwise. This is a directional price movement comparison over the full 4-hour window. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0049999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0099999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0149999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0199999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0249999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0299999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0349999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0399999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0449999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0499999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0549999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0599999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0649999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0699999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0749999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0799999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0849999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0899999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0949999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.0999999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1049999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1099999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1149999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1199999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1249999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1299999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1349999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1399999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1449999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1499999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1549999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1599999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 0.1649999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Dogecoin price movement market dashboard aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking whether DOGE will move up or down during a specific four-hour window on July 8, 2026. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants placing capital on directional outcomes. The dashboard displays current odds, trading volume, and historical price action, giving you a cross-platform view of how the crypto community is pricing this short-term volatility event. Both platforms host the same underlying question but may show different probability distributions based on their unique user bases and liquidity pools.

Prediction market odds represent aggregated trader beliefs about future price movement, not current spot prices. On this market, odds reflect the collective assessment of whether DOGE will rise or fall during the specified window, independent of its current trading level. Spot price expectations are typically derived from technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic sentiment, whereas prediction markets synthesize all available information through financial incentives. If traders expect volatility but are uncertain about direction, odds may hover near 50-50 even if spot prices show strength. This divergence often signals genuine uncertainty or disagreement among market participants about the near-term catalyst.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, contract specifications, and user demographics, which can create pricing gaps on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's market may attract institutional traders and retail participants in the US, while Polymarket draws a global, decentralized audience. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and order-book dynamics also vary between platforms. Additionally, slight differences in market hours, settlement rules, or how each platform defines the event window can cause temporary divergence. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but gaps may persist if transaction costs or regulatory friction outweigh the profit opportunity.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency markets, macroeconomic data releases (inflation, interest rates), Bitcoin price movements, and Dogecoin-specific news such as exchange listings or developer updates. Social media sentiment, whale wallet activity, and technical chart breakouts can also drive short-term volatility. Broader crypto market sentiment—driven by Fed policy, traditional finance volatility, or geopolitical events—often influences altcoin direction. In the hours immediately before the window opens, any breaking news about exchanges, security incidents, or major partnerships could shift trader positioning. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates on futures exchanges, and order-book imbalances provides real-time signals of directional conviction.