TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up on July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$3,037

$0.07 or above

 - Kalshi

$0.07 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,687
N/A
N/A
$1,585
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$883
N/A
N/A
$255
Settled
No
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.165 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 7, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket measures price change relative to the window's start and end, while Kalshi uses a series of binary thresholds tied to a 60-second average at 5 PM EDT. The two platforms employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket measures directional price change (4 PM to 8 PM) using Chainlink; Kalshi measures price levels at a single point (5 PM) using CF Benchmarks. Different time windows, different data sources, and different resolution logic create incompatible settlement outcomes.Hero tip: These are structurally different markets. Polymarket bets on 4-hour momentum; Kalshi bets on price being above specific thresholds at exactly 5 PM. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may also diverge on the DOGE/USD rate. Confirm which market matches your trading thesis before entering.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional price comparison: resolves Up if Chainlink DOGE/USD at 8:00 PM ET >= Chainlink DOGE/USD at 4:00 PM ET. Measures momentum over the full 4-hour window. Source: Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd).
  • Kalshi: Price-level binary thresholds: resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds any of 33 discrete thresholds (0.0049999 to 0.1649999) at exactly 5 PM EDT. Measures absolute price level at a single snapshot, not directional change. Source: CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold value (e.g., above 0.0049999 for the $0.005 outcome, above 0.0099999 for the $0.01 outcome, etc.). The official final value is calculated as the average of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute before expiration. Cryptocurrency price data varies across sources; CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative source for this market, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future price action, not current spot prices. When this market shows elevated odds for an up move, it signals collective expectation of bullish momentum during the resolution window—independent of where DOGE trades right now. Spot price and prediction odds can diverge sharply if breaking news, regulatory announcements, or macro sentiment shift trader positioning. Comparing these two signals helps distinguish between what the market is pricing versus what spot technicals suggest, offering a fuller picture of near-term directional risk.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market designs, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulated structure and Polymarket's decentralized model attract different trader demographics and risk tolerances, leading to pricing gaps even on identical events. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when one platform prices the outcome higher than the other, though transaction costs and withdrawal friction often prevent full convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money is concentrating and which platform's participants hold stronger conviction.

Major catalysts include Elon Musk social media activity, Bitcoin momentum shifts, and broader crypto market sentiment swings—all of which historically drive DOGE volatility. Regulatory announcements, exchange listings, or macro economic data releases on July 7 could trigger sharp repricing in the final hours. Technical levels and options expiry activity on other crypto assets may also bleed into DOGE trading. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate odds shifts and identify entry or exit points before the market closes.