TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Dogecoin be up on July 11, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$515

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$49
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down on July 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with multiple price level thresholds. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same timestamp but employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT candle vs CF Benchmarks RTI index) and measurement methods (binary open/close comparison vs multi-level price thresholds), creating potential for non-aligned resolutions despite identical event timing.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different resolution mechanics. Polymarket resolves as a simple binary (up if close >= open); Kalshi resolves as a series of price level bets. Monitor Binance candle data and CF Benchmarks RTI independently. Price divergence between the two sources or index calculation delays could create settlement disputes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the candle beginning at July 11, 5 PM ET. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single data source: Binance spot exchange.
  • Kalshi: 33 separate price level markets using CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI). Each market resolves YES if the 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1649999). Resolves NO if threshold not exceeded. Data source: CF Benchmarks index, not direct exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty consecutive one-second prices from CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected in the final minute before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the calculated average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase.

Frequently asked questions

The Dogecoin price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether DOGE will trade higher or lower by a specific deadline. This market reflects collective expectations from thousands of participants placing capital on directional price moves. Tracking across multiple venues reveals how different trader bases and liquidity pools assess the same event, offering a broader view than any single platform alone. Current volume and odds across both venues help traders gauge conviction levels and identify potential arbitrage opportunities or consensus breakdowns.

Prediction market odds represent real-money bets on future price direction, making them a forward-looking gauge distinct from current spot prices. Traders in this market are wagering capital on where DOGE will settle, not where it trades today. When odds heavily favor one outcome, it signals strong trader conviction about momentum or catalysts ahead. Comparing these odds to technical levels, on-chain metrics, and sentiment indicators can reveal whether the market is pricing in known risks or overlooking emerging signals. Divergences between prediction odds and traditional analysis often highlight where edge exists.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and liquidity depths, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also enforce slightly different market rules, settlement timelines, or outcome definitions, leading to arbitrage opportunities. Regulatory environments and platform-specific incentives can shift where volume concentrates, moving odds independently. Monitoring both venues helps traders spot mispricings and understand which outcome interpretation the broader market favors most strongly.

Macro crypto sentiment shifts, Bitcoin volatility, and major regulatory announcements often ripple through altcoin markets like Dogecoin. Social media momentum, celebrity or influencer commentary, and exchange listing news can trigger rapid repricing. Broader equity market stress or risk-on rallies may push traders toward or away from speculative assets. On-chain metrics such as whale accumulation, exchange inflows, and developer activity can signal conviction shifts. Monitoring these catalysts in real time helps traders anticipate odds moves and adjust positions before consensus fully reprices the outcome.