TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

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$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Dogecoin be up at July 1, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$1,904

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.07 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.075 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,055
N/A
N/A
$1,043
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.005 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.01 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.015 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.02 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.03 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.035 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.04 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.045 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.05 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.055 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.06 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.065 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.08 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.085 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.09 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.095 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.1 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.105 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.11 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.115 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.12 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on July 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average window. Both platforms measure price direction but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks real-time index) and measure different resolution concepts (relative price direction via candle comparison vs. absolute price level via index average). Both resolve at 5 PM ET/EDT on July 1, 2026, but the underlying settlement values are not interchangeable.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically. Polymarket's 'Up' outcome requires close >= open on the 1-hour candle; Kalshi's 'Yes' outcome requires the 60-second index average to exceed at least one price threshold (minimum 0.005). A Dogecoin price that rises during the hour but ends below its opening price would resolve Down on Polymarket but could resolve Yes on Kalshi if the index level is sufficiently high. Treat these as separate markets with separate hedging logic.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves Up if DOGE/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on July 1, 2026. Data source: Binance DOGE/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026 is above any of 33 price thresholds (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1649999). Market contains 33 separate Yes-resolution conditions, each tied to a different price level. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold value (e.g., above 0.0049999 for the $0.005 outcome, above 0.0099999 for the $0.01 outcome, etc.). The official price is calculated as the mean of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute, providing standardized pricing based on institutional cryptocurrency data rather than retail sources.

Frequently asked questions

Major catalysts include Dogecoin-specific news (exchange listings, developer updates, celebrity endorsements), broader crypto sentiment shifts, and macroeconomic data affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action often lead altcoins, so moves in larger markets can cascade into DOGE trading. Regulatory announcements, social media trends, and whale wallet activity are also closely watched by traders on this market. Unexpected volatility in traditional markets or sudden Fed policy signals can trigger flight-to-safety or risk-on rotations that reshape short-term crypto positioning. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate odds shifts before they fully materialize.