TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down on April 4, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI), different measurement methodologies (1H candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and fundamentally different resolution structures (single binary vs. 37 independent threshold contracts). The same price action on April 4 at 5 PM ET could resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution mechanics. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi is a suite of price-level predictions. Monitor both Binance spot price and CF Benchmarks index separately. If you are hedging across platforms, account for the fact that index divergence or data feed delays could cause mismatched outcomes. Verify the exact Kalshi threshold contract you hold, as each resolves independently.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on April 4, 2026. DOWN otherwise. Single outcome. Uses Binance as exclusive source.Kalshi:
37 independent price-level prediction markets. Each resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 0.0049999 to 0.1849999). No binary UP/DOWN outcome; each threshold is a separate contract.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.