TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET
Volume:
$4,675
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on April 3, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs open), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance spot candle vs CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second average), and fundamentally different resolution structures (single binary vs 41 threshold-based binaries). These differences will produce divergent outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket traders should monitor Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle open and close prices. Kalshi traders should track CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Do not cross-hedge these positions assuming they resolve identically. Exchange spreads and index calculation differences could create arbitrage or loss scenarios.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary market: resolves Up if Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open, otherwise Down. Uses official Binance exchange data for the specific 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 3, 2026. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 41 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific price threshold for CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI. Each resolves Yes if the 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold (e.g., 0.0049999, 0.01, 0.015, ... 0.21). No single Up/Down outcome; instead, multiple threshold-based Yes/No outcomes. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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