TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct measurement systems: Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI index thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle open/close comparison. These may produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
These markets measure different things. Kalshi bets on absolute price levels from a specialized index; Polymarket bets on directional movement within a Binance candle. Cross-platform correlation is not guaranteed. Choose your platform based on which data source you trust and which outcome definition matches your thesis.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds any of 37 price thresholds ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1849999. All 37 conditions trigger YES resolution. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if the close price of DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle (starting at 5 PM ET on April 26) is greater than or equal to the open price. Otherwise resolves DOWN. Data source is Binance DOGE/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
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