TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on April 21, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Both platforms measure price change over this interval, but they use different data sources and methodologies: Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) at a single checkpoint (5 PM EDT), while Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream to compare opening and closing prices across the full 4–8 PM window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains 37 logically contradictory resolution conditions that all resolve to YES for any price above 0.005, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses a clear directional comparison (price at end vs. price at start), creating an irreconcilable divergence in resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market as specified—it contains a critical data integrity failure. The 37 conditions are redundant and overlap completely; any DOGE price above $0.005 triggers YES across all thresholds. On Polymarket, you have a clean binary: if DOGE closes higher than it opens during 4:00–8:00 PM ET on April 21, you win; otherwise you lose. Trade Polymarket only.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market lists 37 separate YES-resolution conditions, each checking if the 60-second average of DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 0.005 to 0.185). All conditions reference the same measurement point (5 PM EDT) and the same data source (CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI). Because every threshold is independent and non-exclusive, if the price is above 0.005, ALL 37 conditions are simultaneously true, creating logical redundancy and ambiguity about which condition actually governs resolution. The market provides no explicit NO condition or fallback rule.
- Polymarket: Market uses a simple directional comparison: resolves UP if Dogecoin price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET on April 21, 2026; otherwise resolves DOWN. Resolution source is Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream. This is a clean binary outcome with no ambiguity.
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