TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the DOGE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket measures a single 1-hour candle open/close on Binance DOGE/USDT, while Kalshi uses 36 separate price thresholds based on CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index with no clear unified outcome definition.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms expecting consistent settlement. Polymarket offers a simple binary (Up/Down based on Binance candle). Kalshi's 36 identical 'Yes' conditions create logical incoherence—every single condition resolves to Yes if price is above 0.005, making the market unresolvable as stated. Avoid Kalshi until rules are clarified.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on a single 1-hour DOGE/USDT candle on Binance. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Source: Binance DOGE/USDT pair, specifically the 1H candle beginning at April 16, 5PM ET.
- Kalshi: 36 separate conditions, all resolving to 'Yes' if a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' DOGEUSD_RTI exceeds various price thresholds (0.005 through 0.185). All conditions are logically identical in structure ('if above X then Yes'), creating a critical ambiguity: there is no 'No' outcome defined, and all thresholds collapse into a single binary at the lowest threshold (0.005).
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