TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,140
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on April 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs. open), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally different data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI), measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 28 independent threshold-based markets). These differences can produce non-overlapping outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate, non-hedgeable markets. Polymarket resolves to a single binary outcome (Up or Down). Kalshi offers 28 independent markets, each with its own Yes/No resolution tied to a specific price threshold. Price discovery on one platform does not guarantee resolution alignment on the other. Monitor both Binance and CF Benchmarks data independently in the hour leading up to 5 PM EDT on April 13, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at the specified time. Uses official Binance exchange data as the sole source of truth. Single outcome per market.
- Kalshi: 28 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific price threshold of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI). Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second average of DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its designated threshold. Thresholds range from 0.0049999 to 0.1849999. Multiple independent outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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