TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$533
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price will be higher at the end of a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on April 12) compared to its price at the start. Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured at 5 PM EDT—creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and measurement timing.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Three critical misalignments: (1) Data source fragmentation—Chainlink DOGE/USD vs CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI; (2) Timing mismatch—Polymarket measures 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET) vs Kalshi measures single 60-second average at 5 PM EDT; (3) Kalshi market structure appears malformed with 37 logically identical YES-resolution conditions, suggesting data integrity failure or incomplete market specification.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate, non-correlated markets. Polymarket is a directional 4-hour bet; Kalshi is a point-in-time threshold check at 5 PM. Do not hedge one against the other. Kalshi's redundant condition structure is a red flag—contact the platform for clarification before committing capital. Verify Kalshi's settlement date (2026 vs 2025 discrepancy).Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional price comparison across 4-hour window using Chainlink DOGE/USD oracle. Resolves UP if price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise DOWN. Single binary outcome. Source: https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd
- Kalshi: Point-in-time threshold measurement using CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT on April 12, 2026. Contains 37 conditions, all resolving YES if average exceeds thresholds ranging from 0.0099999 to 0.1849999. Market structure appears logically redundant or incomplete.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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