TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$754
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price rises or stays flat versus falls during a specific 4-hour window on April 11, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) sampled at 5:00 PM EDT—creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and measurement timing.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Chainlink vs CF Benchmarks), different measurement windows (4:00–8:00 PM ET vs single point at 5:00 PM EDT), and different resolution logic (binary Up/Down vs 37 tiered Yes/No thresholds). The markets are not directly comparable.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves based on price movement over a 4-hour span using Chainlink. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels at a single moment (5:00 PM EDT) using CF Benchmarks. These are separate markets with separate oracles. Confirm your data source preference and time window alignment before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market: resolves Up if Chainlink DOGE/USD at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Single resolution source: Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd).
- Kalshi: 37 separate binary outcomes, each tied to a price threshold. All resolve Yes if CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average BEFORE 5:00 PM EDT exceeds that threshold (thresholds range from 0.0049999 to 0.1849999). Single measurement point: 5:00 PM EDT on April 11, 2026. No Down/No outcome explicitly defined in provided rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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