TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$12,801
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on April 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs open comparison), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index with 40 distinct price-level thresholds. The markets are fundamentally measuring different things: directional movement versus absolute price levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement values: Polymarket resolves on directional movement (close vs open) from a single exchange candle, while Kalshi resolves on absolute price levels from a real-time index. The data sources, measurement windows, and resolution mechanics are incompatible.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate, non-hedgeable markets. Polymarket bettors are predicting direction; Kalshi bettors are predicting price levels. Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable here. Confirm your preferred data source: Binance spot DOGE/USDT for Polymarket, or CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI for Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if the close price of the DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle (starting at 5 PM ET on April 10) is greater than or equal to the open price. Otherwise resolves DOWN. Single data source: Binance DOGE/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific price threshold (0.005, 0.010, 0.015, ... 0.205). Each resolves YES if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds that threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index (not Binance). Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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