TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event segments Dogecoin's price on June 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Participants select which range they believe DOGE will fall within, with bands spanning from below $0.01 up to $0.165 and above. The final price is determined by averaging 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index data.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 24, 2026. The price is divided into mutually exclusive ranges, each representing a distinct outcome. The first range covers prices below $0.01, followed by consecutive $0.005 bands (e.g., $0.01-0.0149999, $0.015-0.0199999) continuing through the highest range of $0.165 and above. The market resolves to Yes for whichever range contains the calculated 60-second average. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, with the final value derived from averaging all 60 individual prices collected during the final minute before expiration.
Prediction market odds on this contract often diverge from simple spot price expectations because they embed tail-risk premiums, funding costs, and trader conviction about volatility. While traditional price forecasts might center on a single point estimate, this market prices multiple discrete outcomes simultaneously. Traders who believe Dogecoin will trade outside consensus ranges bid up odds on extreme bands, while those expecting stability concentrate liquidity in middle tiers. Over time, these odds tend to converge toward realized outcomes as new information arrives. Comparing the market's probability distribution to analyst price targets reveals where traders see asymmetric risk or opportunity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an automated market maker and order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one discrete price band, and the platform calculates implied probabilities from the current bid-ask spread. As traders submit orders, the price of each outcome adjusts in real time. The cost to buy a share reflects the market's collective assessment of that range's likelihood. Kalshi's pricing model ensures transparent price discovery and allows you to enter or exit positions at any time before the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, once Dogecoin's spot price at that specific moment can be verified from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range bracket contains the verified DOGE/USD rate at 5pm EDT on June 24, 2026. All open positions settle automatically once the price is confirmed and the winning outcome is locked in. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is final and binding once the price data is published.
Major catalysts for this market include Dogecoin adoption announcements, shifts in broader cryptocurrency sentiment, regulatory developments affecting digital assets, and macroeconomic events influencing risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements often correlate with DOGE, so developments in those markets can ripple through this contract. Social media trends and celebrity endorsements have historically moved Dogecoin volatility. Central bank policy changes, inflation data, and traditional finance market stress can also redirect capital flows into or out of crypto. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, exchange inflows, and technical levels to anticipate price momentum heading into the June 2026 settlement date.