TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Dogecoin's price into specific ranges on July 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT, allowing traders to bet on which price band DOGE will fall within. Ranges span from below $0.01 up to $0.165 and above. The resolution uses CF Benchmarks' official Dogecoin Real-Time Index averaged over 60 seconds.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 6, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, with Yes outcomes triggered when the average price falls within that specific range (e.g., between 0.0100000-0.0149999 for the $0.01 to $0.0149999 outcome). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than other cryptocurrency data providers, ensuring consistency across all price-based determinations.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot price expectations capture current market sentiment at a single point in time. This market aggregates the views of many participants betting real capital on their conviction, which often surfaces information faster than traditional price discovery alone. When odds shift significantly, it typically signals that traders have updated their expectations based on new catalysts or analysis. Comparing this market's odds to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal where consensus is forming around Dogecoin's price trajectory.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different Dogecoin price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each range contract trades independently, and the price of a share reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring. As new trades execute, prices update in real time, allowing the market to continuously incorporate fresh information. Liquidity and trading volume in each price range determine how tight the spreads are and how easily traders can enter or exit positions.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by where Dogecoin actually trades at that specific time. The winning price range is verified against credible public sources once the event occurs. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and final, ensuring all participants can verify the result independently.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency trading, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin price movements (which often drive altcoin sentiment), and Dogecoin-specific developments such as network upgrades or adoption news. Social media trends and celebrity endorsements have historically influenced Dogecoin volatility. Broader crypto market sentiment, Federal Reserve policy signals, and traditional finance integration efforts can also sway trader conviction. Monitoring on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and sentiment indicators helps traders anticipate how this market may reprice before settlement.