TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market divides Dogecoin's price on July 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges, from $0.0099999 or below up to $0.165 or above. Participants select which range they believe DOGE will occupy. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index averaged over the final 60 seconds before market close.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on July 5, 2026. The official price is the average of all 60 RTI prices captured in the final minute window. Each outcome corresponds to a distinct price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on which range contains the averaged price. CF Benchmarks' DOGEUSD_RTI serves as the authoritative pricing source for this market.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about where Dogecoin will settle, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and event risk. While spot exchanges show what DOGE trades for right now, this market prices in expectations about volatility, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts over the coming months. Traders who believe the consensus odds underestimate or overestimate a particular price range can profit by taking the opposite side, creating a mechanism that continuously calibrates odds toward true probability. This dynamic often reveals information not yet reflected in traditional price discovery.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each Dogecoin price bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a specific outcome, and the price of that share reflects the market's implied probability. As demand shifts—driven by news, technical analysis, or changing macro conditions—the odds for each price range adjust in real time. Traders can enter or exit positions at any point before resolution, and the platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery across all brackets.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once Dogecoin's price at that specific moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning bracket is determined by where DOGE trades on major exchanges at the designated time, and all shares corresponding to that bracket pay out in full. Positions in non-winning brackets expire worthless. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of the event time, allowing traders to see results and settle their positions quickly.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency adoption, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin price movements (which often drive altcoin sentiment), and Dogecoin-specific developments such as exchange listings or protocol upgrades. Social media trends and celebrity endorsements have historically moved DOGE prices significantly. Broader market stress, changes in Federal Reserve policy, or geopolitical events can also reshape trader expectations about where Dogecoin will trade by July 2026. Technical breakouts or breakdowns may trigger momentum-driven repricing of the odds.