TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Dogecoin's price on July 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT into discrete price ranges, allowing participants to predict which band the price will fall into. Ranges span from below $0.01 up to $0.165 and above, with each range representing a $0.005 interval. The price is determined using CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index averaged over the final 60 seconds before expiration.
Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Each outcome represents a mutually exclusive price range, and exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes based on where the 60-second average falls. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than alternative sources. At market expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the final settlement price, which is then matched to the appropriate range outcome.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about where Dogecoin will actually trade, often diverging from analyst forecasts or historical volatility models. When this market shows high probability concentrated in a narrow range, it signals strong consensus; when odds are dispersed across multiple brackets, traders are uncertain. Comparing these odds to published price targets from crypto analysts or on-chain sentiment data can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to broader sentiment. The odds update dynamically as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each bracket has its own implied probability, derived from the ratio of buy and sell orders at any given time. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range Dogecoin will occupy, with payouts determined by the final verified price. The pricing reflects real capital at risk, making it a direct measure of market-derived probability rather than a poll or survey.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed based on Dogecoin's verified spot price at that exact moment. The winning bracket is determined by comparing the settlement price against the predefined range thresholds. Once the event timestamp passes and the price is verifiable from credible public sources, the market locks and payouts are distributed to holders of the correct outcome. No further trading occurs after resolution.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency trading, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin price movements (which often correlate with altcoin sentiment), and Dogecoin-specific news such as exchange listings or protocol updates. Social media momentum and celebrity endorsements have historically moved Dogecoin volatility. Broader crypto market stress or rallies, changes in stablecoin dynamics, and shifts in retail trading activity can all influence where traders expect the price to settle. Technical levels and options expiry dates may also create price pressure near the resolution window.