TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Dogecoin's price into specific ranges on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Each outcome represents a distinct price band, from below $0.005 up to $0.19 and above. The price is determined using CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI), calculated as a 60-second average.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 10, 2026. The market resolves to exactly one outcome corresponding to the price range in which the average falls. The ranges are: below $0.005, $0.005–$0.0099999, $0.01–$0.0149999, continuing in $0.005 increments through $0.185–$0.1899999, and $0.19 or above. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source for this market, and traders should note that prices from other sources like Google or Coinbase may differ from the official RTI used for resolution.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will occur, often diverging from current spot prices because they factor in forward-looking catalysts and volatility. While spot exchanges show today's price, this market embeds expectations about macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and sentiment shifts over the coming months. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to consensus views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book matching, where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform converts these trades into implied probabilities displayed as percentages for every bracket. Liquidity and order flow determine the spread between bid and ask prices, so tighter spreads indicate higher confidence in a particular range, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, when Dogecoin's price at that specific moment is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range bracket contains the actual DOGE valuation at settlement time. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed, the corresponding bracket is marked as correct, and traders holding shares in that outcome receive their payout.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency trading, shifts in Bitcoin and broader crypto market sentiment, Dogecoin adoption news, macroeconomic policy changes, and social media or celebrity endorsements. Technical developments, exchange listings, and changes in mining activity can also influence trader expectations. Additionally, volatility spikes in traditional markets or geopolitical events may trigger flight-to-safety or risk-on rotations that ripple through altcoin valuations, moving this market's odds.