TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Dogecoin's price on July 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Participants bet on which range DOGE will fall within, from below $0.01 to above $0.165. The resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index, averaging 60 price points collected in the final minute before expiration.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the 60-second average (e.g., between 0.01-0.0149999 for the second outcome, between 0.015-0.0199999 for the third, etc.). The official price is calculated as the mean of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute, ensuring consistent institutional-grade pricing independent of retail cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs about future price movement, often diverging from current spot prices because they factor in volatility, macroeconomic shifts, and event-driven catalysts. While spot exchanges show what Dogecoin trades for right now, this market embeds forward-looking sentiment about where it will settle by the resolution date. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to consensus expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each bracket's price reflects the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to commit capital, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and deeper liquidity. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the odds adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market-clearing prices.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, at which point the actual Dogecoin price is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range bracket contains the verified spot price at that exact timestamp. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed, the winning bracket is paid out in full while all other positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the settlement time once data is finalized.
Major Bitcoin movements often drive Dogecoin volatility, since DOGE tends to correlate with broader crypto sentiment. Regulatory announcements, social media catalysts, macroeconomic shifts, or changes in exchange listings can trigger sharp repricing. Network upgrades, whale transactions, or shifts in retail trading interest may also influence expectations. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates on derivatives exchanges, and mainstream media coverage can help you anticipate how this market might shift before settlement.