TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin's price exceeds specific thresholds by a set time in the future. The outcome depends on measuring the cryptocurrency's value against predefined levels at a precise moment, using a standardized data source for accuracy.
All markets share a common structure: each resolves to "Yes" if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT that day. Thresholds range incrementally from just above $0.005 to $0.2. The same data source—CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index—is used universally for all markets to ensure consistency, though users may reference other platforms like Google or Coinbase for informal guidance. No market-specific nuances alter this core mechanism; resolution hinges solely on whether the measured average crosses the exact numerical barrier defined for each market at the designated time.
Prediction market odds offer a unique perspective on future price expectations, often reflecting a 'wisdom of the crowd' that differs from traditional polls or analyst forecasts. While spot price expectations are based on current market conditions and immediate sentiment, this market aggregates the beliefs of individuals willing to put capital behind their predictions. Therefore, the odds here represent a probabilistic forecast of the Dogecoin price on the specified date, potentially incorporating insights not captured by conventional methods. It’s a forward-looking indicator, distinct from current market valuations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Dogecoin price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of Dogecoin falling within that range at the resolution date. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly evolving based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the future Dogecoin price.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Dogecoin price at 5pm EDT on September 18, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The contract corresponding to the price range containing the actual Dogecoin price at that time will be settled at a value of 100, while all other contracts will settle to 0. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the premium paid, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency space, such as regulatory changes or technological breakthroughs, could influence Dogecoin’s price. News regarding adoption by large companies or prominent figures could also cause substantial shifts. Macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates or interest rate decisions, and overall market sentiment toward risk assets will also play a role. Unexpected events, such as security breaches or significant network upgrades, could also move the market considerably between now and Sep 18, 2026.