TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin's price exceeds specific thresholds on a set date, using a standardized index for accuracy. The outcome depends on measuring the cryptocurrency's value at a precise moment, reflecting real-world interest in price milestones.
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for Dogecoin on September 11, 2026, at 5 PM EDT. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, resolving to "Yes" if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT exceeds the specified level. Thresholds range incrementally from $0.005 to $0.2. All markets use the same index for price verification, ensuring consistency despite variations in other data sources. The resolution hinges on a single snapshot of the index at the defined time, with each market independently assessing its corresponding threshold.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the Dogecoin price on the resolution date. These odds represent what traders believe is the probability of Dogecoin trading within specific price ranges at 5pm EDT on September 11, 2026. This differs from simply looking at current spot prices or analyst predictions, as this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing for a dynamic and continuously updated expectation of the future price. It’s a forward-looking indicator based on incentivized forecasts, rather than a snapshot of present value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Dogecoin price outcomes. The prices of these contracts reflect the implied probability of each outcome, with higher prices indicating greater belief in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own research, news events, and overall market sentiment, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi dashboard, showing the available liquidity at different price levels.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the Dogecoin price as reported by a widely-recognized and reliable financial data provider at 5pm EDT on September 11, 2026. The exact price used for resolution will be the mid-price from that data source at the specified time, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor news and data sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news regarding Dogecoin adoption by large companies, regulatory changes impacting cryptocurrency, or significant technological developments within the Dogecoin ecosystem could all influence trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, could also play a role, as they affect risk appetite in the crypto market generally. Unexpected events, like security breaches or major endorsements, could also cause substantial price swings and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.