TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Dogecoin's price on July 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT across multiple price thresholds. Participants predict whether DOGE will reach or exceed various price levels, ranging from $0.005 to $0.165. The price is determined using CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index, with the final value calculated as the average of 60 price samples collected in the final minute before expiration.
Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold value by at least 0.0000001. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At market expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are sampled, and their arithmetic mean determines the final settlement price against which all thresholds are evaluated.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific price outcomes, often diverging from analyst consensus or spot market sentiment. While traditional financial forecasts rely on models and historical data, this market prices outcomes based on real-money commitments, creating a dynamic and responsive gauge of collective belief. The odds here can signal whether the crowd expects Dogecoin to trade above or below certain thresholds, sometimes leading or lagging conventional price targets depending on market conditions and trader conviction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a specific price range or level, and the market price of those shares reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As traders enter positions, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens based on demand, allowing the platform to discover a consensus price for each outcome in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources to determine the winning price bracket or level. The resolution process verifies Dogecoin's actual spot price at the specified time, and payouts are distributed to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. Once the event is verifiable from established market data, the market settles and trading concludes.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency trading, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin price movements (which often correlate with altcoins), and Dogecoin-specific news such as exchange listings or community developments. Technical levels and support-resistance zones can also trigger sharp repricing as traders adjust positions ahead of the settlement date. Broader sentiment swings in crypto markets, changes in stablecoin liquidity, and shifts in retail versus institutional interest all influence where traders believe DOGE will trade at the designated time.