TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Diesel prices tomorrow?
kalshi

Diesel prices tomorrow?

Volume:
$23,434

Above $5.330

 - Kalshi

Above $5.330 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $5.330

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
$2,234
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.335

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,467
N/A
N/A
$2,313
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.325

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,214
N/A
N/A
$2,026
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.320

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,029
N/A
N/A
$2,027
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.360

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,013
N/A
N/A
$531
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.355

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.340

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$158
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.345

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.420

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,248
N/A
N/A
$2,766
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.415

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,806
N/A
N/A
$1,757
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,765
N/A
N/A
$1,165
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.405

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,742
N/A
N/A
$1,741
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.410

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,652
N/A
N/A
$1,576
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.370

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
$518
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.365

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$717
N/A
N/A
$614
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.380

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$185
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.375

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.385

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.390

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.395

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks diesel fuel price movements on a specific future date, August 5, 2026. Participants assess whether the national average diesel price will exceed various threshold levels. The outcome depends entirely on the actual price recorded that day against these predefined benchmarks.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple sequential price thresholds for diesel fuel on August 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct price level, with the outcome for each determined by whether the actual national average diesel price exceeds its specific threshold. All markets share the same resolution date and rely on the same underlying price data source. The structure allows participants to bet on the likelihood of diesel prices reaching or surpassing various points along a continuous spectrum, providing granular insight into market expectations for price levels on that specific day.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the diesel price movement market, along with 24-hour volume of $23,427. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around potential changes in diesel pricing, offering a real-time view of market sentiment and activity for this specific economic indicator.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean on macro-economic indicators and supply-chain reports, traders are pricing in a more nuanced set of expectations, including short-term geopolitical risks and regional supply disruptions. The gap between these views can highlight areas where market participants diverge from traditional expert predictions.

This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual diesel price movement against the defined parameters, closing the market based on observable, publicly available data rather than internal models or forecasts.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 12, 2026: unexpected supply shocks from key exporting regions, changes in global inventory levels, geopolitical developments affecting transport routes, or rapid shifts in demand from major consumers. Each of these can prompt rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their positions in response to new information or risk assessments.