TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 24, 1:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks diesel fuel price movements for a specific future date, reflecting how global supply chains and energy markets respond to geopolitical events, seasonal demand fluctuations, and production changes. Prices can shift based on factors like crude oil costs, refinery operations, and economic policies.
All markets resolve based on the observed diesel price on August 24, 2026. Each market has a unique price threshold, ranging from $5.555 to $5.655. If the actual price exceeds a market's specified threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of diesel prices reaching various levels, offering granular insight into market expectations for that day.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time aggregate of trader expectations. While analysts may publish target ranges or scenario-based projections, this market distills crowd wisdom into a single, continuously updated probability. Traders react instantly to news, inventory data, and geopolitical developments, often diverging from slower-moving expert opinions.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look to official energy statistics, government releases, and authoritative industry data sources to determine the final result. The process is designed to produce a clear, objective conclusion based on publicly available information.
Key signals include weekly inventory reports from major energy agencies, unexpected supply disruptions, changes in global demand, and policy announcements affecting fuel production or distribution. Geopolitical tensions, weather events impacting refineries, and shifts in seasonal consumption patterns can also trigger rapid moves. Traders will monitor these developments closely as they unfold before Aug 31, 2026.