TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Diesel prices tomorrow?
kalshi

Diesel prices tomorrow?

Volume:
$24,083

Above $5.370

 - Kalshi

Above $5.370 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $5.370

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,994
N/A
N/A
$1,784
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.340

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,929
N/A
N/A
$1,788
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.345

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,639
N/A
N/A
$1,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,421
N/A
N/A
$1,304
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.360

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,370
N/A
N/A
$1,236
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.330

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,343
N/A
N/A
$1,140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.335

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,095
N/A
N/A
$881
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.355

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,072
N/A
N/A
$936
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.315

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$973
N/A
N/A
$973
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.320

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$698
N/A
N/A
$319
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.365

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
$517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.325

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$641
N/A
N/A
$448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.415

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,131
N/A
N/A
$2,487
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.410

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,913
N/A
N/A
$1,460
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.380

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,520
N/A
N/A
$1,434
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.375

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,250
N/A
N/A
$851
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.385

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$48
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.390

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$44
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.405

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.395

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks diesel fuel price levels for a specific future date, reflecting how market forces and supply-demand dynamics influence energy costs. Diesel prices can fluctuate based on geopolitical events, production levels, and economic indicators. The outcome depends on whether the price meets or exceeds certain thresholds on the specified day.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple threshold conditions for diesel prices on August 4, 2026. Each rule specifies a different price point, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the actual diesel price on that date is above the corresponding threshold defined in any of the rules. Since all rules share the same resolution condition—comparing the actual price to a specific value—the collective outcome hinges on whether the price exceeds the highest relevant threshold among the listed options. The structure allows for granular assessment of price levels, with each threshold acting as a potential trigger for a 'Yes' resolution. No additional secondary rules modify this core mechanism.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where diesel prices are headed. While analysts may incorporate macro trends and supply studies, traders on Kalshi react to real-time data, news, and short-term expectations, which can create noticeable differences in projected price directions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and offering, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectation of participants. The market price adjusts dynamically based on trading volume of $24,083, recent news on supply or demand shifts, and short-term economic indicators influencing diesel futures.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual diesel price movement as recorded by authoritative sources at the specified resolution time, closing the market based on observed economic data.

Events such as unexpected changes in crude oil inventories, geopolitical tensions affecting transport routes, shifts in seasonal demand, or government policy announcements could all move this market. Traders on Kalshi will also watch inventory reports, refinery outages, and broader economic indicators that influence diesel supply and consumption in the coming weeks.