TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 19, 1:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks diesel fuel price movements on a specific future date, reflecting potential influences such as supply chain dynamics, geopolitical events, and market demand fluctuations. Participants assess whether price thresholds will be surpassed, providing insight into anticipated economic conditions.
The event evaluates multiple sequential price thresholds for diesel fuel on August 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price level, and if the actual diesel price exceeds that level, the associated market resolves to 'Yes.' Thresholds progress incrementally from $5.420 to $5.520. The structure allows participants to bet on the likelihood of diesel prices reaching or surpassing various points along a continuum, with higher thresholds representing increasingly stringent conditions. All markets share the same resolution date and rely on a single, authoritative price source to determine outcomes.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced outlook shaped by real-time trading. While analysts may issue reports based on models and historical trends, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust positions based on fresh news, supply chain updates, and geopolitical developments that could affect diesel prices.
This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official energy reports, refinery data releases, and macroeconomic indicators that confirm the direction of diesel price movement over the specified period.
Several indicators could shift this market before Aug 26, 2026. Key drivers include weekly inventory reports from major energy agencies, unexpected supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, changes in global demand from seasonal patterns, and policy announcements affecting fuel production or imports. Any surprise in these areas may cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their expectations about near-term diesel price direction.