TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 12, 1:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the national average diesel fuel price on a specific future date. It reflects how fuel costs fluctuate due to supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The outcome depends on whether the price meets or exceeds certain thresholds.
If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.270, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.275, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.280, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.285, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.290, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.295, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.300, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.305, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.310, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.315, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.320, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.325, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.330, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.335, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.340, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.345, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.350, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.355, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.360, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.365, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Diesel Price on August 12, 2026 is above $5.370, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Traders incorporate real-time data, sentiment, and short-term expectations that may not appear in longer-term reports. While analysts focus on macro trends, market participants react quickly to supply updates, geopolitical developments, and inventory reports. This creates a dynamic comparison where price movements reflect immediate market perception rather than consensus projections.
This market resolves around Aug 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price movement is determined by authoritative sources tracking diesel pricing at that specific moment. No subjective interpretation is involved — the market settles based on observable, publicly recorded data that confirms whether prices rose, fell, or remained stable.