TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Diesel prices tomorrow?
kalshi

Diesel prices tomorrow?

Volume:
$15,364

Above $5.315

 - Kalshi

Above $5.315 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $5.315

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,575
N/A
N/A
$2,117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.345

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,819
N/A
N/A
$1,680
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.355

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,603
N/A
N/A
$1,140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.330

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,032
N/A
N/A
$859
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.325

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$996
N/A
N/A
$915
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.335

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$934
N/A
N/A
$776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.340

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
$733
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.360

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$470
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
$297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.320

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
$159
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.365

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,136
N/A
N/A
$769
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.415

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
$497
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.385

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$532
N/A
N/A
$508
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.380

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.370

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$282
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.390

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.375

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$326
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.395

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.405

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.410

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$84
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks diesel fuel price movements on a specific future date, reflecting how global supply chains and energy markets respond to geopolitical events, seasonal demand shifts, and production changes. Diesel prices serve as a key indicator for transportation costs and broader economic health.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the observed diesel price on August 3, 2026 exceeds a specified threshold. Each market defines a different price level, creating a tiered structure where higher thresholds represent more bullish price outcomes. If the actual price equals or surpasses any given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The sequential nature of these thresholds allows participants to assess the probability distribution of possible price outcomes across a narrow range, effectively mapping market expectations for price levels on that specific date.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of diesel price trends. While analysts may incorporate longer-term supply and demand models, traders on Kalshi react quickly to new data, sometimes showing sharper shifts when fresh supply disruptions or policy updates emerge.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the majority view of where diesel prices will land. The market price adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and new information flow, capturing short-term expectations more responsively than many traditional forecasts.

This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual diesel price movement over the specified period, closing the market based on observable, publicly available data.

Key signals that could shift this market include unexpected supply chain interruptions, changes in global oil production levels, geopolitical developments affecting transport routes, and government policy announcements on fuel taxes or subsidies. Any data pointing to sharp changes in diesel inventory levels or consumer demand will also strongly influence trader sentiment on Kalshi before resolution.