TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Diesel prices this week
kalshi

What will diesel prices be this week?

Volume:
$202,325

Above $6.40

 - Kalshi

Above $6.40 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $6.40

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,567
N/A
N/A
$4,354
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.44

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,444
N/A
N/A
$4,145
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.36

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,910
N/A
N/A
$5,506
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,846
N/A
N/A
$5,855
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.42

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,660
N/A
N/A
$5,840
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.38

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,198
N/A
N/A
$2,483
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.34

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,868
N/A
N/A
$3,352
5d 8h 17m
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.50

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,534
N/A
N/A
$9,438
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.48

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,368
N/A
N/A
$9,906
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.46

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,535
N/A
N/A
$4,345
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.52

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,676
N/A
N/A
$4,081
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.64

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,448
N/A
N/A
$4,278
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.66

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,371
N/A
N/A
$2,954
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.68

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,359
N/A
N/A
$4,974
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.54

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,119
N/A
N/A
$3,988
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.60

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,852
N/A
N/A
$3,746
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.56

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,422
N/A
N/A
$3,116
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.62

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,093
N/A
N/A
$2,441
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.58

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,993
N/A
N/A
$2,641
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.72

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,506
N/A
N/A
$2,530
5d 8h 17m
No
kalshi

Above $6.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,558
N/A
N/A
$2,325
5d 8h 17m
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks diesel fuel price movements for a specific calendar week, offering multiple thresholds to assess whether prices surpass various levels. It reflects market expectations about supply, demand, and geopolitical factors influencing fuel costs during that period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the observed diesel price on September 28, 2026. Each market specifies a different price threshold, ranging incrementally from $6.32 to $6.72. If the actual price exceeds the threshold defined for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The structure allows participants to evaluate the likelihood of diesel prices reaching progressively higher levels by the specified date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the diesel price market dashboard provides a real-time view of trading activity and price discovery. You'll find the current price, the 24-hour trading volume of $10,029, and the total volume traded to date of $202,325. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of different price outcomes, allowing you to gauge market sentiment. This allows traders to quickly assess the state of the diesel price market and make informed decisions based on the latest data.

Currently, the predictions generated by traders in this market are being closely watched to see how they align with expert analysis. While traditional forecasts rely on economic models and expert opinions, this market harnesses the wisdom of the crowd. It will be interesting to see if the collective predictions of traders in this market prove more accurate than those of industry analysts regarding the direction of diesel prices. This comparison provides a unique perspective on potential future price movements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future diesel price. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates, reflecting the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes, and changes based on supply and demand for each contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a publicly available, widely-recognized source for diesel fuel prices. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual price at the time of resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil supply or changes in international relations, could cause price volatility. Economic indicators, like shifts in global demand or changes in US monetary policy, will also play a role. Furthermore, major weather events impacting transportation and refining capacity could move the market. Any news related to diesel production, inventory levels, or regulatory changes could also prompt shifts in trader sentiment and price adjustments.