TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Diesel prices this week
kalshi

Diesel prices this week

Volume:
$302

Above $5.14

 - Kalshi

Above $5.14 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $5.14

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.16

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.18

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.20

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.22

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.24

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.26

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.28

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.32

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.34

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.36

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.38

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.40

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.42

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.44

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.46

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.48

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.50

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.52

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $5.54

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks the price of diesel fuel on a specific date, reflecting how global supply chains, geopolitical events, and seasonal demand can influence energy costs. The outcome depends on whether the price meets or exceeds certain thresholds, providing insight into economic conditions affecting transportation and industry.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple threshold conditions for diesel prices on August 14, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price level, resolving to 'Yes' if the actual diesel price exceeds that threshold. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of diesel prices reaching various points along a continuum, with higher thresholds representing increasingly stringent conditions. All markets share the same observation date and are resolved based on the same underlying price data, ensuring consistency across outcomes. The collective set of markets provides a detailed probabilistic view of where diesel prices are expected to fall on that date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous trading, with the current odds reflecting the collective expectation of where diesel prices will settle by the end of the week. The top outcome’s probability is shown as a percentage, and volume indicates how much trading activity is behind those prices. This pricing mechanism allows for rapid adjustments as new information about supply, demand, or policy emerges.

This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the officially recorded diesel price for the week in question, removing speculation and aligning the market result with real-world data.

Key signals that could shift this market include weekly energy reports from major agencies, unexpected supply chain interruptions, changes in global oil inventories, and shifts in seasonal demand patterns. Any surprise geopolitical developments affecting transport fuels may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations ahead of the resolution date.