TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Diesel prices in Sep 2026
kalshi

What will diesel prices be in Sep 2026?

Aug 28, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Oct 7, 2026, 3:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$42,026
Volume 24h:
$3,909
5%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$21,008
6%

Above $4.60

 - Kalshi

Above $4.60 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 7, 2026

Time left: 26d:22h:24m

Will Diesel Price on September 30, 2026 be above $4.60?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 26 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4.60

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$301
0%
634%
$301
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.20

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$1,687
0%
33,640%
$515
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.10

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 24¢
23¢
N/A
$1,678
0%
0%
$1,172
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.40

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 6¢
5¢
N/A
$1,946
24%
12,873%
$1,411
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $4.90

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$509
0%
0%
$501
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.30

Trade
96%
Yes 99¢No 6¢
5¢
N/A
$2,005
0%
0%
$510
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.70

Trade
94%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$2,822
34%
0%
$1,245
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.50

Trade
94%
Yes 99¢No 9¢
8¢
N/A
$881
4%
0%
$279
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.60

Trade
94%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$507
10%
0%
$379
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.90

Trade
90%
1%
Yes 93¢No 53¢
46¢
N/A
$3,882
0.02%
2,112%
$1,369
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.80

Trade
87%
Yes 95¢No 10¢
5¢
N/A
$2,692
0%
10,848%
$233
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $4.70

Trade
84%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$700
0%
250%
$700
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $4.80

Trade
80%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$500
0%
0%
$500
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.00

Trade
76%
11%
Yes 79¢No 43¢
22¢
N/A
$4,653
0.52%
1,559%
$2,357
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.30

Trade
63%
51%
Yes 62¢No 44¢
6¢
N/A
$2,937
27%
1,108%
$1,028
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $5.00

Trade
58%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$500
0%
0%
$500
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.20

Trade
53%
11%
Yes 66¢No 95¢
61¢
N/A
$1,455
32%
722%
$556
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.10

Trade
48%
Yes 77¢No 73¢
50¢
N/A
$2,372
0%
0%
$1,981
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.40

Trade
42%
33%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$3,822
22%
6,379%
$1,806
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.60

Trade
11%
6%
Yes 35¢No 100¢
35¢
N/A
$1,913
19%
355%
$1,282
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.70

Trade
9%
6%
Yes 31¢No 100¢
31¢
N/A
$1,130
23%
0%
$916
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.50

Trade
7%
3%
Yes 31¢No 98¢
29¢
N/A
$3,078
21%
1,280%
$1,410
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $7.60

Trade
5%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$56
0%
0%
$56
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.80

Trade
N/A
N/A
27¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 22h
active
kalshi

Above $6.90

Trade
N/A
N/A
24¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 22h
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event tracks expected diesel fuel price levels by the end of September 2026. It reflects market and policy expectations about energy costs, influenced by global supply chains, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Higher prices may indicate supply constraints or increased demand during this period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the observed diesel price on September 30, 2026. Each market has a specific price threshold, and resolves to 'Yes' if the actual price exceeds that threshold. The structure creates a ladder of progressively higher price benchmarks, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of diesel prices reaching various levels. The outcome for each market is binary — either the price is above the stated level (resolving to Yes) or it is not (resolving to No). No additional calculations or adjustments are applied; the raw price comparison on the specified date determines all resolutions.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 diesel price market shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume on Kalshi. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market activity for this specific prediction, allowing users to monitor how expectations for diesel prices evolve over time. With a total volume of $42,026 and a 24-hour volume of $3,863, the dashboard reflects the level of interest and engagement from participants on Kalshi.

Currently, prediction market odds imply a 99.0% probability for the top outcome, which can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts often weigh factors like supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and policy changes when making their predictions. In contrast, this market incorporates real-time trader sentiment and betting patterns, which may react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in market conditions. Monitoring both sources offers a broader perspective on expectations for future diesel prices.

This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect actual diesel price data for the specified period, removing speculation and aligning the market result with observable economic indicators. Traders will watch closely as the date approaches to see whether market predictions align with real-world price movements.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including changes in crude oil supply, unexpected geopolitical developments, shifts in global demand, and policy decisions affecting energy markets. Natural disasters, inventory reports, and inflation data may also influence trader sentiment. As Oct 7, 2026 nears, any significant news that impacts fuel production, storage levels, or consumption patterns is likely to cause rapid movements in odds and pricing on Kalshi.