TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$185,665,189

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,833,875,329

407,365

Markets across

40,470

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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DeepSeek market share this week
kalshi

What is DeepSeek's market share this week?

Volume:
$656,780

Above 23.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 23.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 23.4%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$179,159
N/A
N/A
$29,025
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 22.4%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$88,630
N/A
N/A
$36,713
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 22.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$87,260
N/A
N/A
$22,005
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 22.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$79,976
N/A
N/A
$37,947
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 22.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65,091
N/A
N/A
$27,263
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 21.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43,690
N/A
N/A
$18,639
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 21.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,894
N/A
N/A
$13,168
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 20.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,070
N/A
N/A
$10,438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 24.6%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,011
N/A
N/A
$20,412
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether DeepSeek will achieve over 20.0% market share on the OpenRouter text market by model author during the week of October 5, 2026. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is based on OpenRouter text market share data. Keep an eye on OpenRouter’s reported statistics for the week of October 5, 2026, as these figures will determine whether DeepSeek surpasses the 20.0% threshold and resolve this market.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on OpenRouter's publicly reported text market share data for model authors during the week of October 5, 2026, measured at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday and rounded to one decimal place. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 20.0% to 24.6%) that DeepSeek must exceed for that specific market to resolve as 'Yes.' If DeepSeek's market share is not separately listed in the source data—if it is grouped under a category like “Others,” for example—all markets within this event automatically resolve as 'No.' The markets are independent; meeting one threshold does not affect the resolution of others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with OpenRouter or the governing benchmark, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the DeepSeek market share tracks the current odds reflecting trader expectations about its future performance. You’ll find a price history chart showing how those expectations have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $36,578. The total volume traded on this market is $656,780. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are engaging with the question of DeepSeek’s market share.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. This market represents the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While analyst reports provide expert opinions, they can be subject to biases or limited information. The price action in this market reflects real-money stakes, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what the future holds for DeepSeek. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how crowd-sourced predictions align with, or diverge from, conventional wisdom.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The current price reflects the probability of DeepSeek achieving a certain market share, as determined by the collective actions of traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of DeepSeek's prospects, driven by financial incentives and informed speculation.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding DeepSeek’s market share at that time. The specific methodology for determining the final market share will be based on industry-standard metrics and reporting practices. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions and the final outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from DeepSeek regarding new product launches, partnerships, or technological breakthroughs would likely cause price fluctuations. Shifts in the broader AI landscape, such as the emergence of competing technologies or changes in regulatory policies, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, reports on DeepSeek’s adoption rate, user growth, and financial performance will be closely watched and could drive significant movement in this market.