TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the average price of DeepSeek tokens on a specific date, using a third-party data provider for verification. The outcome depends on whether the price meets or exceeds certain thresholds, providing a clear, objective measure for resolution.
All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported average price per million DeepSeek tokens as of August 31, 2026, at 10AM ET, using the most recent settled print available at that time. Ornn settles daily prints approximately 12 hours after each day's 00:00 UTC close, meaning the print available at expiration may reflect data from the prior calendar day rather than the expiration date itself. Revisions to the underlying data after the expiration date are not considered in the resolution. The USD iteration of the index is used unless otherwise specified, and all values are rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific price threshold; if the settled price is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time aggregate of trader expectations and betting behavior. While analysts may publish target prices or probability ranges based on models, this market reflects the crowd-sourced view shaped by recent developments, sentiment shifts, and speculative interest. The current implied probability on Kalshi can diverge noticeably from consensus analyst projections, especially if new information emerges that isn’t yet priced into conventional forecasts.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the market’s current top outcome reflecting the aggregate of all active bets. The platform displays a probability percentage for each possible price range, updated instantly with each trade. This mechanism captures the collective wisdom of participants, adjusting dynamically to news, token performance, and broader market trends influencing expectations for the DeepSeek token.
This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the average token price as defined by the market rules, drawn from reliable, widely accepted sources. Traders can monitor updates leading up to the resolution date to assess how recent events might shift expectations.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves. Major announcements from the DeepSeek project — such as protocol upgrades, partnerships, or regulatory developments — may cause rapid re-pricing. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, macroeconomic indicators, and shifts in investor sentiment also play a role. Additionally, competing token projects or technological breakthroughs could affect expectations, moving odds on Kalshi as traders reassess probabilities.