TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which company will command a higher private market valuation between Databricks and Stripe as of June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, Databricks is priced at 79.0% to have the larger valuation. Resolution will be determined by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC for June 30, 2026, with NPM data published daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. Watch for NPM's publication of valuations by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, as this deadline will trigger resolution or potential extension through July 4, 2026 if data remains unavailable.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Prediction market odds reflect real-time trader consensus and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically published quarterly or after major funding rounds. While equity research teams may issue valuation estimates based on revenue multiples and growth rates, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information and financial incentives into a single probability. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst reports on Databricks and Stripe valuations can reveal whether the market is pricing in expectations that Wall Street has not yet fully incorporated.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution depends on verified valuation data for both Databricks and Stripe as of June 30, 2026. This may include private funding rounds, secondary market transactions, or official company valuations announced near that date. The outcome is binary: if Databricks has a higher valuation, the Databricks outcome wins; if Stripe has a higher valuation, the Stripe outcome wins. Traders should monitor both companies' capital raises and market developments leading up to the resolution date.
Key catalysts include new funding rounds for either company, which directly establish or update valuations. Major product launches, earnings-equivalent disclosures, or strategic partnerships could shift investor perception of growth potential. Macroeconomic conditions affecting venture capital availability and tech sector valuations broadly will influence both companies. Regulatory developments, competitive threats, or executive changes at either firm may also move odds. Additionally, any IPO announcements or secondary market transactions involving either Databricks or Stripe would provide concrete valuation signals ahead of the June 30 resolution date.