TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Databricks or Salesforce will have a higher valuation on June 30, 2026, comparing Databricks' private valuation via Nasdaq Private Market against Salesforce's public market capitalization. On Polymarket, Databricks is currently priced at 24.0%, implying Salesforce is favored to maintain the higher valuation. Resolution will use the final NPM Price for Databricks and the official closing price for Salesforce on June 30, 2026, with NPM data published by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026 serving as the authoritative source. Watch for any Databricks IPO or direct listing announcement before June 30, 2026, which would shift resolution to public market capitalization data.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Databricks’ valuation is equal to Salesforce’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While equity analysts typically focus on individual company fundamentals, growth trajectories, and profitability, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment and real-money conviction. Analysts may project Databricks' cloud-native data platform growth versus Salesforce's established CRM dominance differently than traders do. Comparing market-implied probabilities to published analyst reports on both companies' 2026 valuations can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk or opportunity relative to Wall Street consensus.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution hinges on comparing the official valuations of Databricks and Salesforce as of June 30, 2026. Valuations may be determined by recent funding rounds, public market debuts, acquisition offers, or other credible financial benchmarks available on that date. The outcome is binary: either Databricks has a higher valuation than Salesforce, or it does not. Traders should monitor both companies' capital-raising activities, IPO timelines, and strategic developments leading up to the resolution date to inform their positions.
Key catalysts include funding announcements or IPO filings from either company, quarterly earnings and guidance from Salesforce, major product launches or partnerships, shifts in cloud infrastructure spending, AI adoption trends affecting data platforms, and macroeconomic conditions influencing tech valuations. Databricks' progress in enterprise adoption and revenue growth directly impacts its valuation trajectory. Salesforce's cloud revenue, AI integration roadmap, and customer retention also matter significantly. Regulatory changes, competitive pressures from other data and CRM platforms, and broader market sentiment toward enterprise software will influence how traders price the relative valuations through June 2026.