TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap

Volume:
$570,097

No IPO by June 30, 2026

 - Polymarket

No IPO by June 30, 2026 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No IPO by June 30, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$44,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

200–250B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$328,005
$38,824
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

250B+

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$147,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100–125B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$85,709
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

150–175B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$84,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

175–200B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$82,339
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<100B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$48,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

125–150B

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$38,336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether Databricks will complete an initial public offering and, if so, what its market capitalization will be at the closing price on its first trading day. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that Databricks will not IPO by June 30, 2026—stands at 99.5%, while the probability of a market cap of $250 billion or greater at IPO closing is 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by the primary exchange's official listing page or another reliable source if that figure is unavailable. Watch for any IPO announcement or filing activity as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches, which marks the end of the betting window for this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time consensus from traders betting capital on Databricks' IPO valuation, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on equity research models and historical comparable company analysis. Prediction markets often incorporate forward-looking sentiment and breaking news faster than published analyst reports, which may lag market developments. Comparing Polymarket odds to sell-side research estimates can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimism or caution than Wall Street consensus. Both signals matter: markets aggregate distributed information, while analysts provide detailed fundamental reasoning.

The Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the end of trading and the determination of final outcomes. Resolution is contingent on Databricks completing its initial public offering and the official closing market capitalization being published. The specific outcome thresholds—such as whether the closing market cap reaches $250 billion or other predefined levels—will determine which positions settle in the money. Traders should monitor IPO announcements, pricing details, and official market data sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how their positions will be adjudicated.

Key catalysts include Databricks' IPO roadshow reception, investor demand signals, and any updates on company financials or growth metrics. Market-wide conditions such as technology sector sentiment, comparable SaaS IPO performance, and broader equity market volatility will influence trader positioning. Regulatory developments, competitive announcements from rivals, or changes to Databricks' business outlook could shift probability estimates. Additionally, macroeconomic data affecting risk appetite and IPO appetite will play a role. Real-time news flow, analyst commentary, and pre-IPO trading activity on secondary markets will all feed into prediction market pricing as traders reassess the likelihood of various closing market cap outcomes.