TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 11:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether a high-ranking government official will step down from their position within a specified timeframe. The outcome depends on verified changes in their official status, reflecting real-world political dynamics and leadership transitions. Such movements can result from various factors including policy disagreements, personal decisions, or broader administrative shifts.
The event resolves to Yes if Dan Driscoll ceases to hold the position of Secretary of the Army before January 1, 2027, regardless of the specific date within that window. A valid departure requires that Driscoll formally and permanently vacate the role, with the settlement date determined by when he officially stops holding the office according to authoritative records. Temporary absences—such as leaves, suspensions, or recusals—do not count unless they lead to a permanent end of his tenure. If Driscoll dies while in office, all contracts settle at the last fair price, as determined by the Exchange. A prior re-occupation of the role after a brief vacancy does not nullify the initial departure. Any form of cessation—resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, term expiration without renewal, recall, or other permanent end to his service—counts toward a Yes outcome, encompassing both voluntary and involuntary exits.