TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Prediction markets and polls measure different things: polls capture stated intentions or snapshots of opinion, while this market reflects traders' real-money bets on an actual, verifiable outcome. Market odds tend to incorporate more recent information and carry financial incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional surveys. For social media activity forecasts like this one, prediction markets may prove more responsive to behavioral patterns and platform dynamics than conventional polling, since the outcome is concrete and easily measured after the event concludes.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the tracking period closes and the final post count can be verified. The outcome is determined by counting the actual number of posts published during the specified week, confirmed against credible public sources. No ambiguity exists in the measurement itself—either the count falls within one of the predefined ranges or it does not—making this a straightforward event to settle.
Several factors could shift odds before resolution. Major announcements from CZ or Binance might trigger increased social media activity, while regulatory developments or market events could prompt commentary. Changes in his posting habits leading up to the week in question would serve as leading indicators. Additionally, if CZ takes a public stance on trending topics or engages in high-profile disputes, traders may adjust their forecasts upward. Conversely, periods of silence or reduced platform engagement could lower expectations, causing the market to reprice toward lower outcome ranges.