TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
15,000+
- Polymarket
15,000+ - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Closed: Aug 18, 7:09 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a strong bias toward the higher-case scenario, with trader expectations differing noticeably from many public health analysts. While experts may issue caution or baseline projections, the market price captures collective investor intuition about outbreak severity, media coverage, and potential reporting delays — often reacting faster than traditional forecasts to new data or panic signals.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Health agencies, confirmed case tallies, and official epidemiological databases will determine whether the threshold is met, closing the market based on real-world data rather than speculation.
Key signals include confirmed outbreak spikes, media coverage of contaminated food imports, changes in consumer behavior affecting disease spread, and any public health emergencies declared by federal agencies. Each new case report, recall announcement, or advisory from the CDC could shift trader sentiment and dramatically alter odds before Sep 1, 2026.
