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406,422

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2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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CT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?
kalshi

CT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$22,248

Luke Bronin, 20-25%

 - Kalshi

Luke Bronin, 20-25% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 11:08 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luke Bronin, 20-25%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,060
N/A
N/A
$934
10mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Luke Bronin, ≥25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,404
N/A
N/A
$1,994
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Luke Bronin, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,589
N/A
N/A
$2,344
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

John Larson, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,310
N/A
N/A
$2,059
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

John Larson, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,325
N/A
N/A
$1,963
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Luke Bronin, 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,800
N/A
N/A
$1,449
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

John Larson, ≥10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,764
N/A
N/A
$1,350
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Luke Bronin, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,588
N/A
N/A
$1,285
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Luke Bronin, 15-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,407
N/A
N/A
$899
10mo 2w 1d
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks how decisively a candidate wins a primary election by measuring the difference in votes between the winner and the runner-up. The outcome depends on whether the vote difference falls within specific percentage ranges, reflecting either a close contest or a landslide victory.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the margin of victory for either Luke Bronin or John Larson in the 2026 CT-01 Democratic primary. The margin is calculated as the difference in vote share between the candidate and the runner-up. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; and it is zero in case of a tie for first place. Each market corresponds to a specific margin range, from 0% to 100%, with ranges inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. No rounding is applied to the margin percentages. Votes for a candidate running under multiple parties or listings are summed to determine their total vote share. The market resolves to Yes if the actual margin falls within the specified range for the respective candidate.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the CT-01 Democratic primary margin market on Kalshi tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $0. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the expected margin of victory for the Democratic primary winner in Connecticut's first congressional district. This visualization helps users monitor market sentiment and trading activity as the primary date approaches.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent possible margins of victory. The current top outcome reflects the most likely margin range as assessed by participants, with liquidity indicated by volume of $22,248. Price movements respond to new information, such as debate performance or endorsements, shaping the market’s expectation for the final result.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will be calculated from certified election returns, closing the market based on the actual vote tallies reported after the election night counts are finalized.

Key events such as candidate debates, endorsements, fundraising announcements, and any emerging scandals can shift this market. Unexpected developments—whether policy gaffes, voter turnout surprises, or last-minute campaign surges—often prompt rapid repricing. Traders will also watch polling trends in the weeks leading up to the primary, as consistent moves in voter preferences typically drive market adjustments.