TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$224

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities of the price moving up or down between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $226. The total volume for this market is $224, indicating the overall interest from traders. This information helps you understand where the crowd currently believes the price is headed.

Currently, the collective prediction on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts are focusing on geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production decisions, this market reflects real-time sentiment and incorporates a wider range of information, including high-frequency trading data and potentially non-public information. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by polls or expert opinions, as this market represents a weighted assessment of numerous individual viewpoints.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, as reported by a major financial data provider, increases or decreases between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 30th. The final price will be compared to the opening price at 8:45AM ET to determine the direction of movement and settle this market.

Several factors could significantly influence the crude oil price movement and, consequently, this market. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production cuts or increases, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any surprise announcements from major oil companies could also trigger substantial price swings. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments, and the market will likely react quickly to any significant news.