TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$225

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $222. The total volume traded to date is $225. This provides a clear picture of how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the October 30th event window.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While a significant number of analysts predict a continued upward trend in crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. This difference highlights the potential value of considering prediction market data alongside conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM Eastern Time on October 30th. A price increase will result in a positive outcome for the ‘up’ contracts, while a price decrease will favor the ‘down’ contracts. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand and inventory levels, could also move the market. Furthermore, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will likely have a substantial effect. Finally, major weather events, especially hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could disrupt supply and influence trading activity in this market.