TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$3,397

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$408
$3,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $3,370. The total volume traded in this market is $3,397. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels. The dashboard also displays a history of how the probabilities have shifted over time, offering insights into how opinions have evolved leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for the price of crude oil, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the potential outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than analyst reports, particularly regarding unexpected events or shifts in sentiment. This market offers a unique, real-time gauge of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to express their true beliefs, as accurate predictions lead to profitable trades. The platform facilitates a dynamic pricing mechanism, ensuring the odds closely align with the perceived probabilities of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:45 PM and 5:00 PM Eastern Time on October 30, 2024. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels will likely have a substantial impact. Even unexpected weather patterns that could disrupt oil production or transportation could move this market.